A friend and I like to argue about why San Francisco housing politics is so difficult. I always point to how much less polarized and more productive housing policymaking has been in Oakland and Berkeley. He argues that it’s San Francisco’s density and its attendant challenges which make density a tougher sell than in Oakland; I never really bought this.
Well, now’s a good time for reflection. San Francisco is poised to elect two extremely YIMBY candidates—Matt Dorsey and Joel Engardio—to the Board of Supervisors, and to pass Proposition D, a major housing streamlining proposal. How did this happen? And why didn’t it happen until now?
Why?
The credit goes, in some combination, to San Francisco YIMBY, GrowSF, and the political environment of 2022.
San Francisco YIMBY canvassed in this election, and has for years been growing its membership and building relationships with electeds and other political groups. Maybe this investment in politics is finally paying off.
The biggest difference between this election and previous ones is the existence of GrowSF, an upstart political party founded in 2020 with a particularly strong emphasis on bread-and-butter issues like public safety and education. They are also unabashedly pro-housing.
National reporting also argues that voters in 2022 were more focused on public safety, education, and inflation than in previous cycles, and especially in blue states where abortion rights and support for democracy are not at risk. This helps San Francisco’s moderate Democratic wing, which has historically been more pro-housing.
I don’t live in California at the moment and did not do any work on this election, so do not feel qualified to answer this question. I will say that I find GrowSF’s tactical decisions and theory of change very interesting, and would love to know if it turns out correct over multiple cycles. In particular, GrowSF prioritized mailing voter guides to every voter over door knocking, and built a broader brand focusing on many issues and endorsing for all offices and ballot propositions rather than restricting themselves to only one issue.
But actually why?
But why did it take this long?
I think housing politics is so fraught and challenging in San Francisco mostly because San Francisco has a lot of politics. It’s not the density; it’s the number of people and the size and scope of institutions that result from that, which smaller cities don’t have. It’s not a structurally more NIMBY city, but it’s a city with stronger path dependence.
In Berkeley, if you want the council to reconsider their housing positions, you can reach out to a councilmember. You may be the first person to talk to them about this issue, and they’ll be open to changing their mind on it.
In San Francisco, you will certainly not be the first to ask. Being a large city with lots of voters and a large budget, San Francisco has a large body of parastatal institutions that are slow to influence or change course. High government spending means lots of nonprofits that exist solely to complete city contracts; political groups that bend the city government to gain exactions from developers and businesses; and local political parties. SF is a large, highly educated city with the kinds of people who want to be engaged in politics, and the scale to make that possible: political parties run the gamut from SF Berniecrats to SF Democratic Socialists to SF Transit Riders to the SF Bicycle Coalition. Add to that unions, organized merchants, and run-of-the-mill neighborhood groups that are more easily organized, especially in the pre-Nextdoor days, because of density.
So politics is big and has a lot of players, and nagivating that thicket is naturally difficult. Elected representatives serve more masters, and you need to convince many of them of your new ideas before an elected will consider them.
San Francisco YIMBY has been working for seven years to gain a foothold in local politics, and 2022 seems like the year when this started to materialize. In April they found a new champion in pro-labor, progressive Assembly candidate Matt Haney, and in this election they allied with the Northern California Carpenters Union to campaign for Proposition D. In SF YIMBY’s endorsement questionnaires, long-time NIMBY politicians like Gordon Mar voiced at least partial support for policies like Proposition D and SB 9, and new progressive candidates like Honey Mahogany gave strong support.
In his book Golden Gates, Conor Dougherty asked what YIMBYs will do in the next few decades after they transition, like the highway-revolt NIMBYs two generations before, from upstart neighborhood groups to established actors in city and state politics. The investment in politics by groups like SF YIMBY and GrowSF over the last few years has brought into American urban politics a new emphasis on quality of life, effective governance, and a focus on results that was sorely missing in the early- and mid-2010s. Who knows where it will end up, but LFG!!!